In the coming decades and certainly by the end of this century machines will be capable of doing almost any job humans can, and many they can’t. They’ll work 24/7 without pay; they won’t require businesses to observe safety regulations or any of the trappings that come with human employees. Since they will be quite capable of repairing themselves and each other, maintenance will be just the cost of raw materials, which will be mined, refined and made into parts by other machines. These machines wouldn’t have to be fully autonomous to replace a half of the workforce. Most will be tethered or networked.
Humans are quite limited, when performing complex tasks we can only concentrate effectively on one thing at a time. Our apposing thumbs that made us what we are today just like our two arms and two legs, are the bare minimum to accomplish many tasks. When we need more than two hands to accomplish a task, the communication between these hands is very limited. We only see in the very narrow spectrum of visible light making us oblivious to most of the information available around us without the aid of machines.
In US hospitals alone 15000+ people die every year due to human error. Machines could eliminate all of these mistakes. Imagine a surgeon with multiple appendages some task specific some multitask, operating in a self-sterilizing environment, able to see the entire spectrum and in all available imaging techniques in real time. Operating with a speed and precision much greater than the most skilled human surgeon. Or thousands of networked machines from the size of a small dog to a crane working in perfect unison, erecting buildings in days, not months or years, and the buildings would be structurally perfect. Using engineered materials they would last many times longer. A small contingent of maintenance bots and millions of nanites could keep it in top shape and even redecorate, plus keep it clean down to the last microbe.
How are human workers going to compete with that? The answer is we can’t. Any business that doesn’t take full advantage of this new work force will simply not be able to compete with those who embrace this coming revolution. Capitalism will insure these new methods of manufacturing are perused vigorously.
I know all this seems a long way away, especially when looking at the ASIMO robot, but the only thing really holding this revolution back for now is computing power. Moore’s law is showing no signs of stopping and is predicted to continue for at least another decade, and by then there are other promising computing technologies that should arrive to continue this technological march. It’s hard to find anyone in the field who doesn’t think computers will be smarter than us inside of 40 years. Now when they say smarter than us what they really mean is faster than us. Meaning they will have the power to make all the billions of calculation necessary to process sensory input fast enough to move and react to situations at least as well as we do. And once you train one machine to do a job, that one machine could instantly train thousands of others. As far as what their intellect might be really doesn’t matter, if you think about it how many jobs really require deep intellectual thinking? Most people at some point become so good at their jobs they don’t really have to think that much to do them.
So now machines are doing most of our jobs, what ways will there be left for the unemployed to gain wealth? Only the most intelligent and creative minds will have any marketable value to society. The rest of us poor slobs will just have to live off acquired wealth or welfare. The appreciation of investments like land, rare items and intellectual property are the only thing I can think of. Precious metals and other commodities too until molecular manufacturing arrives.
Molecular manufacturing could actually be closer than fully autonomous robots. What will happen to the value of precious metals once they can be manufactured? Add to that, gemstones that are indistinguishable from the real thing. I’m sure they will try to enforce controls like some sort of watermark, but I think it’s safe to assume that will not work for long, if at all. Once we know this can be done faith in the value of these things will be lost.
In the original Star Trek and for the most part The Next Generation they no longer used money. That was difficult for many viewers to accept so they introduced “Latinum” as a form of universal currency like gold, without giving any logical reason why this material couldn’t be replicated like most other materials in the Star Trek universe. This would of course be a requirement for anything to hold value, but there were many other materials that couldn’t be replicated like Dilithium Crystals but they were never associated with having monetary value. Truth is once you can turn energy into matter there shouldn’t be any material you couldn’t replicate, it just gave them a lot more story directions with these selective restrictions. In Stardocks game Galactic Civilizations money still makes the universe go round well into the future. I don’t think these advanced civilizations would be paying the population to work in the factories. Then again maybe by that time there would have already been a robot revolution that ended with their rights being recognized and hence their own worth. The Yor collective are recognized as a sentient race of machines. But like I said machines would not have to be anywhere near sentient to work in factories.
At some point when the initial investment for the land and the machines is recouped the only overhead for businesses will be one or a few administrators and taxes. So how do you maintain a capitalistic society when goods and services cost next to nothing to provide? Causing, (once machines are fully autonomous), a 70%+ unemployment rate, how do you keep the wheels turning? I guess we raise the sales tax to compensate for the unemployment rate since you’ll have the majority of the population solely on welfare. Then those who own land, intellectual property or whatever else that still has value and are compensated to reach the welfare level, whatever that may be. And those whose investment cash flow exceeds the welfare level, and those whom are smart enough or talented enough to still have a job. Any salary for these individuals should be far above the welfare level, the ultimate class separation. Inflation no longer exists, machines don’t need a raise and unlike their human counterparts their speed and efficiency just keeps going up. What material cost there are will go down over time as methods improve.
However now that machines are doing most of the work it wouldn’t cost nearly as much to house and feed the unemployed. They wouldn’t want for any material possessions and could have all the latest gadgets. I imagine the size and location of there homes would be the only difference between the unemployed, and the employed and or wealthy. Doesn’t sound that bad actually, as long as I could still go fishing.